Optimal Graph Structure Based Short-Term Solar PV Power Forecasting Method Considering Surrounding Spatio-Temporal Correlations

Abstract

Accurate short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of power system. Spatial information from neighboring PV sites contributes to improving forecasting performance. However, most of the current methods considering the spatial information of neighboring sites indiscriminately use all sites data for modeling, which will lead to information redundancy, resulting in low forecasting accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes a short-term solar power forecasting method based on optimal graph structure considering surrounding spatio-temporal correlations. Firstly, the neighboring sites data is analyzed from the perspective of geographical and weather factors to select typical PV sites. Secondly, based on the complex network theory, a new index is proposed to evaluate the connectivity of the graph structure, which improves the predictive ability of the Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model. Finally, considering numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, a hierarchical directed graph structure is constructed to indicate the unidirectional relationship between input samples, which is used as the input of GCN model to mine the spatio-temporal correlation around the targeted site. Through carrying out the case study, the proposed method shows excellent performance in improving accuracy of power forecasting compared with other benchmark methods.