Efficient Bayesian inference of Instantaneous Reproduction Numbers at Fine Spatial Scales, with an Application to Mapping and Nowcasting the Covid-19 Epidemic in British Local Authorities

Abstract

information about population flows to model potential transmissions across local areas. A simple approach to posterior simulation quickly becomes computationally infeasible, which is problematic if the system is required to provide timely predictions. We describe how to make posterior simulation for the model efficient, so that we are able to provide daily updates on epidemic developments.