Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co-influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons

Abstract

The summers of 2019, 2020, and 2021 experienced unprecedented fire activity in northeastern Siberia, driven by record high spring and summer temperatures. Many of these fires burned in permafrost peatlands within the Arctic Circle. We show that early snowmelt together with an anomalous Arctic front jet over northeastern Siberia promoted unusually warm and dry surface conditions, followed by anomalously high lightning and fire activity. Since 1966, spring snowmelt has started 1.7 days earlier each decade. Moreover, Arctic front jet occurrences in summer have more than tripled in frequency over the last 40 years. These interconnected climatological drivers promote extreme fire activity in eastern Siberia, including a northward shift of fires, which may accelerate the degradation of carbon-rich permafrost peatlands.