Long-term environmental risks of the Baltic Sea's "memory effect" revealed by ocean modeling and observation of reprocessing-derived radiotracers

Abstract

Although previous research indicated that the Baltic Sea has a strong "memory effect" for trapping pollutants/nutrients, the associated environmental risks are not well understood due to the knowledge gaps in the long-term hydrodynamics-driven exchange of pollutants/nutrients between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. In this work, we exploited ⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁹I released from the two European nuclear reprocessing plants as oceanic tracers and pollutant proxies, and performed a five-decade hindcast simulation to quantitatively estimate the fluxes and timescales of marine transport of pollutants/nutrients in the North-Baltic Sea. Modeling results underline two potential environmental risks of the Baltic Sea's "memory effect": (1) ∼26 years of environmental half-life for any existing water-soluble pollutants/nutrients in the Baltic Sea driven by its hydrodynamics; (2) the Baltic Sea as a pollutant reservoir continuously exporting 3 % of contaminations per year to the downstream areas after any pollution event. Our findings provide fundamental knowledge for understanding the long-term hydrodynamics-driven pollutant/nutrient transport in the North-Baltic Sea, facilitating the future regional management of the marine environment.