Prognostic Factors for Short‐Term Survival in Alcoholic Hepatitis in Japan: Analysis by Logistic Regression

Abstract

Prognostic factors for the outcome of patients with alcoholic hepatitis were identified by logistic regression analysis. To predict the outcome immediately after admission, clinical data from 97 patients with alcoholic hepatitis on admission were introduced to multivariate analysis. Independent prognostic factors for favorable outcome were hepaplastin time, peripheral white blood cell count, age (40 to 60 years), and serum creatinine level (below 1.4 mg/dl). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and predictive accuracy were 0.78, 0.89, 0.78, 0.89, and 0.86, respectively. The resultant equation for the death rate was applied to another set of patients with alcoholic hepatitis as a validation study. Predictive accuracy estimated 0.95 in validation. The prognostic index derived was simple, accurate, and useful in the prediction of the outcome in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Furthermore, it provides the clinician with an indication of the necessity for the intensive care of patients in a critical condition.