Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract

Abstract The potential contribution of ice sheets remains the largest source of uncertainty in predicting sea‐level due to the limited predictive skill of numerical ice sheet models, yet effective planning necessitates that these predictions are credible and accompanied by a defensible assessment of uncertainty. While the use of large ensembles of simulations allows probabilistic assessments, there is no guarantee that these simulations are aligned with observations. Here, we present a probabilistic prediction of 21st century mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet calibrated with observations of surface speeds and mass change using a novel two‐stage surrogate‐based approach. Our results suggest a sea‐level contribution ranging from 4 to 30 cm at the year 2100, proviso the assumption that our chosen ice sheet model’s physics represent reality.