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Are probabilistic methods a way to get rid of fudge factors? Part I: Background and theory

Possibility TheoryCognitive ScienceAre Probabilistic MethodsEngineeringBehavioral Decision MakingStatistical ThinkingImprecise ProbabilityProbabilistic ReasoningManagementStatistical InferenceProbability TheoryEcological RationalityDecision ScienceDecision TheoryStatisticsFudge FactorsBehavioral Economics