Economic modeling of distributed photovoltaic penetration considering subsidies and countywide promotion policy: An empirical study in Beijing

Abstract

Distributed photovoltaic power generation will not only help to achieve the strategic targets of peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality but also cause a series of impacts on the power grid at the same time. Forecasting the long-term development of regionally distributed photovoltaics can provide a reference for power grid planning and stable operation. In this paper, considering the effect of factors such as subsidies and countywide promotion policy of photovoltaics, a forecasting model for the development tendency of regionally distributed photovoltaics based on system dynamics is established. Then, taking Beijing as an example, an empirical analysis is carried out, and the effect of the proportion of self-consumption and the time when the subsidy is adjusted on distributed photovoltaic penetration is explored through sensitivity analysis. The simulation results show that the installed capacity achieved by the countywide promotion policy will become the main source of the installed capacity growth of distributed photovoltaics in Beijing after 2024. To continuously boost distributed photovoltaic penetration, relevant policymakers should consider the appropriate time when the subsidy is adjusted according to the installation cost of photovoltaic systems.