Key Population Size Estimation to Guide HIV Epidemic Responses in Nigeria: Bayesian Analysis of 3-Source Capture-Recapture Data

Abstract

This was the first implementation of these 3-source capture-recapture methods in Nigeria. Our population size estimates were larger than previously documented for each key population in all states. The Bayesian models account for factors, such as social visibility, that influence heterogeneous capture probabilities, resulting in more reliable population size estimates. The larger population size estimates suggest a need for programmatic scale-up to reach these populations, which are at highest risk for HIV.