Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Mobility under Mild\n Policies: Causal Evidence from Sweden

Abstract

Sweden has adopted far less restrictive social distancing policies than most\ncountries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses data on all mobile\nphone users, from one major Swedish mobile phone network, to examine the impact\nof the Coronavirus outbreak under the Swedish mild recommendations and\nrestrictions regime on individual mobility and if changes in geographical\nmobility vary over different socio-economic strata. Having access to data for\nJanuary-March in both 2019 and 2020 enables the estimation of causal effects of\nthe COVID-19 outbreak by adopting a Difference-in-Differences research design.\nThe paper reaches four main conclusions: (i) The daytime population in\nresidential areas increased significantly (64 percent average increase); (ii)\nThe daytime presence in industrial and commercial areas decreased significantly\n(33 percent average decrease); (iii) The distance individuals move from their\nhomes during a day was substantially reduced (38 percent decrease in the\nmaximum distance moved and 36 percent increase in share of individuals who move\nless than one kilometer from home); (iv) Similar reductions in mobility were\nfound for residents in areas with different socioeconomic and demographic\ncharacteristics. These results show that mild government policies can compel\npeople to adopt social distancing behavior.\n