Domestic water demand prediction based on system dynamics combined with social-hydrology methods

Abstract

Abstract Systematic domestic water demand prediction is of great importance for social and economic sustainable development. To explain the system of domestic water demand prediction more completely, a system dynamic model based on the social-hydrology method was proposed in this paper. The key natural and socio-economic factors that affect the domestic water demand most were identified and investigated. The prediction equations of water price considering the feedback between humans and nature were deduced. The expressions of water-saving consciousness were proposed for the first time. Furthermore, the differential and difference equations for domestic water demand prediction were established to realize the future domestic water demand forecasts considering the natural and social driving forces. Finally, three scenarios were designed to investigate the impact of climate change and economic development on the domestic water demand. The upper and middle Pearl River Basin was selected as a case study. The predicted domestic water demand is consistent with the historical results, which demonstrates that the proposed model can be well used for the prediction of the domestic water demand. Under the three scenarios, the domestic water demand increased by 33, 27 and 18% in 2050 compared with that in 2017, respectively.