Using Machine Learning Methods to Predict Bone Metastases in Breast Infiltrating Ductal Carcinoma Patients

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) was the most common malignant tumor in women, and breast infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC) accounted for about 80% of all BC cases. BC patients who had bone metastases (BM) were more likely to have poor prognosis and bad quality of life, and earlier attention to patients at a high risk of BM was important. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on machine learning to predict risk of BM in patients with IDC. Six different machine learning algorithms, including Logistic regression (LR), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC), Decision tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were used to build prediction models. The XGB model offered the best predictive performance among these 6 models in internal and external validation sets (AUC: 0.888, accuracy: 0.803, sensitivity: 0.801, and specificity: 0.837). Finally, an XGB model-based web predictor was developed to predict risk of BM in IDC patients, which may help physicians make personalized clinical decisions and treatment plans for IDC patients.