Urbanization, land conversion, and arable land in Chinese cities: The ripple effects of high-speed rail

Abstract

Since 2005, Chinese transit authorities have made substantial investments in high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure, driven by the ambition to connect all cities with over half a million people. This study estimates the impact of HSR network expansion on agricultural land conversion using a panel dataset for 171 Chinese cities that developed HSR infrastructure between 2005 and 2012. Structural equation modeling (SEM) estimation results show that HSR contributed indirectly to arable land requisition but directly to agricultural land converted for urban uses. At the same time, real-estate investments are driving agricultural land depletion in the process of China's urbanization. In addition, HSR network expansion exhibits a geographical pattern where the effect on agricultural land conversion was considerably stronger in the western region than among eastern cities, suggesting that HSR-driven land conversion was more likely to occur in less developed places.