Ground-Level NO₂Surveillance from Space Across China for High Resolution Using Interpretable Spatiotemporally Weighted Artificial Intelligence

TLDR

Ground‑level nitrogen dioxide is a major environmental and public health concern. The study aims to develop an AI framework that integrates spatiotemporal weighting to fill satellite data gaps and produce daily 1‑km NO₂ surface concentrations across China. The framework combines missing extra‑trees and deep forest models with satellite TROPOMI/OMI columns, surface measurements, reanalysis, and model simulations to achieve 49 % increased data availability and 100 % spatial coverage for 2019–2020. The resulting ChinaHighNO₂ dataset achieves an out‑of‑sample R² of 0.93 (0.71) and RMSE of 4.89 (9.95) µg m⁻³, reveals a 28 % urban–rural NO₂ contrast, holiday declines of 22–14 %, minimal weekday–weekend differences, and a 72‑day lag in NO₂ recovery post‑COVID‑19, indicating surface NO₂ better reflects emission changes than tropospheric columns.

Abstract

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at the ground level poses a serious threat to environmental quality and public health. This study developed a novel, artificial intelligence approach by integrating spatiotemporally weighted information into the missing extra-trees and deep forest models to first fill the satellite data gaps and increase data availability by 49% and then derive daily 1 km surface NO2 concentrations over mainland China with full spatial coverage (100%) for the period 2019–2020 by combining surface NO2 measurements, satellite tropospheric NO2 columns derived from TROPOMI and OMI, atmospheric reanalysis, and model simulations. Our daily surface NO2 estimates have an average out-of-sample (out-of-city) cross-validation coefficient of determination of 0.93 (0.71) and root-mean-square error of 4.89 (9.95) μg/m3. The daily seamless high-resolution and high-quality dataset "ChinaHighNO2" allows us to examine spatial patterns at fine scales such as the urban–rural contrast. We observed systematic large differences between urban and rural areas (28% on average) in surface NO2, especially in provincial capitals. Strong holiday effects were found, with average declines of 22 and 14% during the Spring Festival and the National Day in China, respectively. Unlike North America and Europe, there is little difference between weekdays and weekends (within ±1 μg/m3). During the COVID-19 pandemic, surface NO2 concentrations decreased considerably and then gradually returned to normal levels around the 72nd day after the Lunar New Year in China, which is about 3 weeks longer than the tropospheric NO2 column, implying that the former can better represent the changes in NOx emissions.