Framing the Use of Climate Model Projections in Infrastructure Engineering: Practices, Uncertainties, and Recommendations

Abstract

An overview of applying global climate model (GCM) projections of temperature and precipitation in infrastructure engineering is provided, with summarized general procedures, a review of commonly used projection products and processing techniques for different engineering applications, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with regard to different decisions via two case studies. Applying climate model projections in engineering requires multiple stages of decisions, which can be summarized as three steps: determining the requirements for climate variables, obtaining climate projections, and postprocessing of obtained climate projections. From the review of engineering applications in which climate projections were used, some important differences were identified during these three steps of decisions. The case studies suggested that the selections of projection products and processing techniques are subject to different kinds of uncertainty and challenges and that the sequence of decisions can lead to great variations in the resulting regional climate change projections. Based on the two case studies and the review of applications and uncertainties reported in the literature, several general observations and recommendations for applying GCM projections in engineering are offered.