medRxiv · 2022 · 36 citations · 6 references
Veterinary MedicineInfectious DiseasesInfectious Disease EpidemiologyOutbreak InvestigationZoonotic DiseasesIncubation Period AnalysisViral ZoonosesZoonotic Disease SurveillanceZoonotic Disease TransmissionZoonotic InfectionsZoonotic VirusesDirect Animal-to-human TransmissionHuman-to-animal TransmissionIncubation Period DistributionOutbreak Incubation AnalysisPathogen Incubation PeriodZoonotic Disease Reservoirs
Abstract Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa. In May 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox characterized by human-to-human transmission was detected in multiple non-endemic countries. We estimated the incubation period for monkeypox using information from 22 probable (N = 1) and confirmed (N = 21) monkeypox cases in patients reported in the United States through June 6, 2022. We pooled U.S. patient data with the data from 18 confirmed cases in patients reported from the Netherlands through May 31, 2022. The mean incubation period from exposure to first symptom onset was 7.6 days (95% credible interval: 6.2 – 9.7), and the 95th percentile was 17.1 days (95% CrI: 12.7–24.3). These findings align with current CDC recommendations for monitoring close contacts of people with monkeypox for 21 days after their last exposure.
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Andrea Antinori, Valentina Mazzotta, Serena Vita et al. · Eurosurveillance · 2022 · 573 citations · Full text
Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data
Nicholas G Reich, Justin Lessler, Derek A. T. Cummings et al. · Statistics in Medicine · 2009 · 166 citations