Modelling the impacts of tobacco denicotinisation on achieving the Smokefree 2025 goal in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Abstract

This preliminary high-level modelling suggests that mandated denicotinisation has a plausible chance of achieving the New Zealand Government's Smokefree 2025 goal. The probability of success would increase if supplemented with interventions such as mass-media campaigns offering Quitline support (especially if predominantly designed for a Māori audience). Nevertheless, there is much uncertainty with these results and more sophisticated modelling is forthcoming.