How Well Do ‘Catch-Only’ Assessment Models Capture Catch Time Series Start Years and Default Life History Prior Values? A Preliminary Stock Assessment of the South Atlantic Ocean Blue Shark Using a Catch-Based Model

Abstract

CMSY++, an improved version of the CMSY approach developed from Catch-MSY which uses a Bayesian implementation of a modified Schaefer model and can predict stock status and exploitation, was used in the present study. Evaluating relative performance is vital in situations when dealing with fisheries with different catch time series start years and biological prior information. To identify the influences of data inputs on CMSY++ outputs, this paper evaluated the use of a nominal reported catch and a reconstructed catch dataset of the South Atlantic blue shark alongside different priors of the blue shark's productivity/resilience (r) coupled with different indices of abundance. Results from the present study showed that different catch time series start years did not have a significant influence on the estimation of the biomass and fishing reference points reported by CMSY++. However, uninformative priors of r affected the output results of the model. The developed model runs with varying and joint abundance indices showed conflicting results, as classification rates in the final year changed with respect to the type of index used. However, the model runs indicated that South Atlantic blue shark stock could be overfished (B2020/Bmsy = 0.623 to 1.15) and that overfishing could be occurring (F2020/Fmsy = 0.818 to 1.78). This result is consistent with the results from a previous assessment using a state-space surplus production model applied for the same stock in 2015. Though some potential could be observed when using CMSY++, the results from this model ought to be taken with caution. Additionally, the continuous development of prior information useful for this model would help strengthen its performance.