Analysis of the effect of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Taizhou City, China, 2008–2020

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in Zhejiang Province, China, while few studies have concentrated on the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in the area. METHODS: Data on HFRS and meteorological factors from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2020 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted to the relationship between meteorological factors including minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and cumulative rainfall with HFRS. RESULTS: The HFRS incidence peaked in November and December and it was negatively correlated with average and highest average temperatures. Compared with median of meteorological factors, the relative risks (RR) of weekly average temperature at 12 ℃, weekly highest temperature at 18 ℃relative humidity at 40%, and cumulative rainfall at 240 mm were most significant and RRs were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.09-1.82), 1.32 (95% CI: 1.05-1.66), 2.18 (95% CI: 1.16-4.07), and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.16-2.73), respectively. Average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity had interactions on HFRS and the risk of HFRS occurrence increased with the decrease of average temperature and the increase of precipitation. CONCLUSION: Our study results are indicative of the association of environmental factors with the HFRS incidence, probable recommendation could be use of environmental factors as early warning signals for initiating the control measure and response.