New evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy

TLDR

The study uses a regression discontinuity design exploiting the Huai River Policy, which provides free coal for heating north of the river but not south, to create quasiexperimental variation in PM10 exposure. A 10 µg/m³ rise in PM10 shortens life expectancy by 0.64 years, mainly through increased cardiorespiratory deaths, and nationwide compliance with Class I standards could recover 3.7 billion life‑years.

Abstract

This paper finds that a 10-μg/m3 increase in airborne particulate matter [particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10)] reduces life expectancy by 0.64 years (95% confidence interval = 0.21-1.07). This estimate is derived from quasiexperimental variation in PM10 generated by China's Huai River Policy, which provides free or heavily subsidized coal for indoor heating during the winter to cities north of the Huai River but not to those to the south. The findings are derived from a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, and they are robust to using parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, different kernel types and bandwidth sizes, and adjustment for a rich set of demographic and behavioral covariates. Furthermore, the shorter lifespans are almost entirely caused by elevated rates of cardiorespiratory mortality, suggesting that PM10 is the causal factor. The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with its Class I standards for PM10 would save 3.7 billion life-years.