SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

Abstract

<ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Background</ns4:bold> : After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. </ns4:p> <ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods</ns4:bold> : We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for <ns4:italic>in silico</ns4:italic> predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. </ns4:p> <ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Results</ns4:bold> : Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. </ns4:p> <ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Conclusion</ns4:bold> : The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases. </ns4:p>