Agent-based modeling and strategic group formation: A refugee case study

Abstract

Refugee flight presents a logistics problem for humanitarian aid workers anticipating ebbs and flows of arrivals. These migrations include travel over long distances with little advanced coordination and damaged social networks. The model presented here is based on these two fundamental premises: long distance and strategic en-route coordination. Assuming that over large distances, refugees attempt to construct groups that provide assistance or security as they navigate toward safety, the agent-based model incorporates cooperative game theory to investigate the impact of group formations on egress times. The modeled refugees make decisions based on individual utility functions informed by two factors, speed of the group and group size. Since groups accommodate slower members, they may reform as refugees choose their best available strategies to reach safety. The results indicate a tipping point in average group size as the slowest group members have more of impact in the utility function of the agents.