Malawi at the crossroads: Does the fear of contracting COVID-19 affect the propensity to vote?

Abstract

Abstract The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has disrupted ways of life, including political processes. In this paper, we assess the effect of own perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote. The paper draws from a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians (n=1155). Our main method used instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. Findings show that 63% of Malawians thought that they are likely to catch COVID-19. Notwithstanding the COVID19 risk, 86% were willing to vote. The regression analysis suggests that an individual’s perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with lower likelihood of voting ( β =-0.096; p <0.05). The results suggest that voter turnout in Malawi’s fresh presidential election may have been highly affected by the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. The policy implication is that instituting and enforcing primary preventive measures may help reduce the perceived risk of catching COVID19 and mitigate voter apathy.