Prediction of the global potential geographical distribution of Hylurgus ligniperda using a maximum entropy model

Abstract

Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of the host through its boring activity; it can also be a vector of various pathogenic fungi. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables limiting the distribution of H. ligniperda and the change trend of its suitable areas under climate change. We used a maximum entropy model to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda on a global scale under near current and future climatic scenarios using its occurrence data and environmental variables. The result shows that the areas surrounding the Mediterranean region, the eastern coastal areas of Asia, and the southeastern part of Oceania are highly suitable for H. ligniperda. The environmental variables with the greatest effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda were determined using the jackknife method and Pearson's correlation analysis and included the monthly average maximum temperature in April, precipitation of driest quarter, the monthly average minimum temperature in December, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and mean diurnal range. Excessive precipitation in winter and low temperatures in spring had a great effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda. The potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda was predicted to change under future climatic conditions compared with near current climate conditions. Highly suitable areas, moderately suitable areas and low suitable areas were predicted to increase by 59.99%, 44.43% and 22.92%, respectively, under the 2081–2100 ssp245 scenario.