Estimating the Long-Term Effects of National and International Sustainable Transport Policies on Energy Consumption and Emissions of Road Transport Sector of Pakistan

Abstract

Energy/fuel consumption and associated emissions are major concerns of transport sector. During the fiscal year (FY) of 2018, Pakistan’s transport sector consumed 22 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) energy from burning of fossil fuels and emitted 52.8 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2, which accounted for 30% of country’s overall carbon emissions. Different scenarios, such as business as usual (BAU), International Energy Agency Vision 2030 (IEA V30), International Energy Agency Vision 2050 (IEA V50), China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and newly developed Pakistan National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP), are analyzed for Pakistan’s transport sector and results are forecasted for the next 17 years. The results show that effective electric vehicle (EV) adoption can cause significant reductions in energy/fuel consumption as well as atmospheric emissions. The distinctive outputs are important parameters in analyzing future energy demands, emissions and introducing effective sustainable energy policies for the transport sector of developing countries.