Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and preterm prelabor rupture of membranes using maternal factors, obstetric history and biomarkers of placental function at 11–13 weeks

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether first-trimester biomarkers of placental function can be used to screen for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), and to develop prediction models using maternal factors, obstetric history and biomarkers of placental function at 11-13 weeks for the calculation of patient-specific risk for sPTB. METHODS: This was a retrospective secondary analysis of data derived from a prospective cohort study on first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia in singleton pregnancies attending for routine Down syndrome screening at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation at a tertiary obstetric unit between December 2016 and September 2019. A split-sample internal validation method was used to explore and develop prediction models for all sPTB at < 37 weeks and for PTB at < 37 weeks after preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM) using maternal risk factors, uterine artery Doppler indices, serum placental growth factor (PlGF), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG). Screening performance was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC)-curve analysis, with calculation of the areas under the ROC curves (AUCs). RESULTS: A total of 9298 singleton pregnancies were included in this study. sPTB at < 37 weeks occurred in 362 (3.89%) cases, including 231 (2.48%) cases of PPROM. sPTB at < 34 weeks occurred in 87 (0.94%) cases, including 39 (0.42%) cases of PPROM. Identified maternal risk factors for sPTB at < 37 weeks included chronic hypertension, conception using in-vitro fertilization and history of PTB. Maternal risk factors for PPROM at < 37 weeks included conception using in-vitro fertilization and history of PTB. Median PlGF multiples of the median (MoM) and PAPP-A MoM were significantly reduced in women with sPTB at < 37 weeks, as well as in those who had PPROM, compared to those who delivered at term. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, PAPP-A and PlGF achieved better performance in predicting sPTB at < 37 weeks (AUC, 0.630 vs 0.555; detection rate (DR), 24.8% vs 16.6% at a false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%; P ≤ 0.0001) and PPROM at < 37 weeks (AUC, 0.643 vs 0.558; DR, 28.1% vs 17.0% at a FPR of 10%; P ≤ 0.0001) than using maternal risk factors alone. Both models were successfully applied to the internal validation dataset, with AUCs of 0.628 and 0.650, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that low levels of maternal serum PAPP-A and PlGF in the first trimester are associated with increased risks of sPTB and PPROM at < 37 weeks. However, further research is needed to identify additional biomarkers to improve the screening performance of the combined model that includes maternal risk factors, PAPP-A and PlGF before clinical application. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.