Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

Abstract

ARIMA (7,1,10) Initial 72 643 65 386 (57 269-73 503) 1.11 (1.28-0.98) ARIMA (9,1,6) Final 72 643 65 042 (56 778-73 306) 1.12 (1.28-0.99) Abbreviation: ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average. a Data from Connecticut and North Carolina were excluded from the analysis.