Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> Green hydrogen from renewable electricity and derived e-fuels can replace fossil fuels in applications where direct electrification is infeasible, making them very valuable for climate neutrality. However, here we show that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast as wind and solar power have, green hydrogen supply remains scarce in the short-term and uncertain in the long-term. Using probabilistic technology diffusion modelling, we find that, despite initial exponential growth, green hydrogen likely (≥75%) supplies &lt;1 % of final energy until 2030 (2035) in the EU (globally). By 2040, a breakthrough is more likely, but large uncertainties prevail with an interquartile range of 4.4-10.5% (EU) and 1.1-4.3% (globally). Both short-term scarcity and long-term uncertainty impede investment in hydrogen end-uses and infrastructure, reducing green hydrogen’s potential and jeopardising climate targets. However, historic analogues suggest that emergency-like policy measures could foster substantially higher growth rates, expediting the breakthrough and increasing the likelihood of future hydrogen availability.