The policy effect on automobile industry considering the relationship between technology,market and production: the dual-credit policy as an example

Abstract

Comprehensively understanding how the policy influences the sustainability transition of the automotive industry is a critical focus in recent years. This paper focuses on the dual-credit policy, an underexplored but critical policy in China, and examines how it would influence the transition of automotive industry. To achieve this goal, an SD model is developed to simulate the effect of policy parameters on the policy objectives by considering the interaction of production, technology and market. The findings reveal that this policy can in general promote the sustainable development of the automotive industry by greatly decreasing its overall energy consumption. However, its impact on the market share of new energy vehicles is limited. Based on the results, some policy suggestions are proposed so as to improve the effectiveness of the dual-credit policy.