Selection of Representative General Circulation Models for Climate Change Study Using Advanced Envelope-Based and Past Performance Approach on Transboundary River Basin, a Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

For the selection of global climate models in the upper basin of the Blue Nile, an advanced envelope-based approach was used. Currently, the number of general circulations models (GCM) has increased extremely. The reliability of any general circulation model in a particular region is confronted, so the selection of the appropriate climate models that can predict the climate variable is essential. Representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were taken into account. For RCP4.5 105 GCMs were used and for RCP8.5 78 GCMs were used to select the best performance models for the Upper Blue Nile Basin for a climate change impact study. Three steps were followed to derive the best performing models in the study area based on their range of projected mean temperature and precipitation changes, the range of projected extreme changes, and the ability to reproduce past climates between 1971 and 2000 and 2071–2100. Five corners of the spectrum were used, e.g., wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold, and the 50th percentile of the temperatures. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a total of 25 GCMs were chosen based on the range of anticipated mean temperature and rainfall change. Based on the range of extreme changes, 10 GCMs were chosen. Finally, for each RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, five GCMs were chosen by combining all three stages.