Risk Analysis Model with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy FMEA – Case Study of Railway Infrastructure Projects in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

Considering the impact of risk events to costs, time and quality of infrastructure projects, it is necessary to invest in risk management in order to prevent or mitigate negative consequences. Risk analysis should monitor the project through the whole project life cycle: from the planning through execution and controlling to finishing. In this paper, we have used Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic based Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to get a better insight into the risk events that occur in the railway infrastructure projects. The study's main contribution is developing and implementing a comprehensive and robust framework for defining and handling with the most important risk events regarding the railway infrastructure projects. The Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic is used to tackle the uncertainty in risk assessment. In order to illustrate the validity and capability of the model, the presented approach has been applied to the railway infrastructure projects in the Republic of Serbia. Each risk event has been analyzed through severity, occurrence and detection. The events were ranked based on the Fuzzy Risk Priority Number (RPN). This research also proposes strategies for the most important events in terms of risk.