Survival · 2022 · 33 citations · 0 references
Social SciencesNuclear EngineeringStrategyDisarmament StudiesInternational SecurityNuclear SecurityNuclear DisarmamentNuclear DoctrineNuclear EscalationNuclear GovernanceNuclear ProliferationNuclear StrategyAdoption Of Disruptive TechnologiesNew Weapons DevelopmentNuclear Accident RiskNuclear Risk GovernanceNuclear Security PolicyNuclear Threats
Technological developments are raising concerns about their impact on the nuclear order, with new weapons systems, vulnerabilities, and destabilizing dynamics threatening global nuclear balance and escalating risks. The article examines five disruptive dynamics, explaining their intricacies and placing them in political and strategic context. The authors argue that these phenomena are fundamentally political and that political mechanisms can mitigate the associated risks. The study concludes that although disruptive technologies pose real and growing risks to the nuclear order, they are not insurmountable.
Hype and fear have arisen about how certain technological developments are impacting the current nuclear order. New weapons systems and support facilities, potential vulnerabilities and associated destabilising dynamics could all place considerable strain on the global nuclear balance and accompanying architecture. This article examines five disruptive dynamics, explains their intricacies and nuances, and puts them in political and strategic context. The nature of nuclear risk is changing (in many cases for the worse), and there are a number of pressures which could have significant negative implications for escalation, stability and order if left unchecked. But these phenomena remain fundamentally political, and there are political mechanisms which can help reduce risks. Accordingly, while the risks posed by disruptive technologies to the nuclear order are real and growing, they should not be insurmountable.