Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

<i>Meconopsis punicea</i> is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of <i>M. punicea</i> for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of <i>M. punicea</i> under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for <i>Meconopsis</i>. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of <i>M. punicea</i>, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of <i>M. punicea</i> is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like <i>M. punicea</i> in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.