Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change

Abstract

<i>Pomacea canaliculata</i> is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of <i>P. canaliculata</i> has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of <i>P. canaliculata</i> in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of <i>P. canaliculata</i>. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.