The Caregiver Support Ratio in Europe: Estimating the Future of Potentially (Un)Available Caregivers

Abstract

The caregiver support ratio (CSR) is defined as the number of potential caregivers aged 45-64 years, the most common caregiving age range, for each person aged 80+, the subgroup of older adults most at risk of needing long-term services and support. This study uses data from the CENSUS HUB database and from the UN database to calculate the current (last year available: 2011) and projected (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050) CSR for a group of European countries. Mediterranean countries, France, Belgium, and Sweden presented the lowest CSR (5:1) in 2011. The countries with the highest CSR were Slovakia (9:1) and Ireland, Poland, Cyprus, and Malta (8:1). The estimated CSR is expected to progressively decline from 6:1 (2011) to 2:1 (2050) for all countries. Although differences in the CSR exist between countries, the number of people aged 45-64 who are available to care for each person aged 80+ will decrease uniformly in the coming decades. Cross-national challenges for gerontological social policies and healthcare provision are expected due to the increasing demand for long-term care among the oldest population.