Changes in geographical runoff generation in regions affected by climate and resource development: A case study of the Athabasca River

Abstract

This study is focused on the lower Athabasca Basin in northwestern Canada that has experienced rapid expansion of oil sands development. The goal of this study is to enhance the understanding of the regional role of the lower Athabasca Basin areas in overall runoff delivery to the downstream Peace-Athabasca Delta. The Cold-regions Hydrological Indicators of Change framework was applied to examine key hydro-ecological relevant indicators influencing the delta. Our novel approach yielded new insights that should be considered in water management. Primarily, a combined flow magnitude and relative flow contributions analysis by geography provides an improved understanding of contrasting runoff generation changes, in terms of opposing responses occurring within a basin. For instance, open-water low flows emanated from the upper regions and a generally increasing tendency from the lower regions. Furthermore, peak summer flows generally experienced decreases from the upper and portions of the lower basin, while contrary increasing tendencies emerged for the east bank of the lower Athabasca River mainstem. Moving beyond the traditional approach of looking only at the climate, landscape and geology were considered as potential causal factors for divergent runoff generation responses. Our approach is transferable to other regional studies.