Investigation of the Stochastic Modeling of COVID-19 with Environmental Noise from the Analytical and Numerical Point of View

Abstract

In this article, we propose a novel mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 involving environmental white noise. The new stochastic model was studied for the existence and persistence of the disease, as well as the extinction of the disease. We noticed that the existence and extinction of the disease are dependent on R0 (the reproduction number). Then, a numerical scheme was developed for the computational analysis of the model; with the existing values of the parameters in the literature, we obtained the related simulations, which gave us more realistic numerical data for the future prediction. The mentioned stochastic model was analyzed for different values of σ1,σ2 and β1,β2, and both the stochastic and the deterministic models were compared for the future prediction of the spread of COVID-19.