Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl

TLDR

Future rice systems must increase grain production while reducing environmental impacts. The study seeks to guide R&D investment at national and global scales to maximize returns. We evaluate yield gaps and resource‑use efficiencies across 32 rice systems covering half of the world’s rice area. High yields and high resource‑use efficiencies can coexist; most systems can improve both, and overall production could rise 32% with near‑elimination of excess nitrogen by targeting a few systems, providing strategic guidance for R&D.

Abstract

Abstract Future rice systems must produce more grain while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. A key question is how to orient agricultural research & development (R&D) programs at national to global scales to maximize the return on investment. Here we assess yield gap and resource-use efficiency (including water, pesticides, nitrogen, labor, energy, and associated global warming potential) across 32 rice cropping systems covering half of global rice harvested area. We show that achieving high yields and high resource-use efficiencies are not conflicting goals. Most cropping systems have room for increasing yield, resource-use efficiency, or both. In aggregate, current total rice production could be increased by 32%, and excess nitrogen almost eliminated, by focusing on a relatively small number of cropping systems with either large yield gaps or poor resource-use efficiencies. This study provides essential strategic insight on yield gap and resource-use efficiency for prioritizing national and global agricultural R&D investments to ensure adequate rice supply while minimizing negative environmental impact in coming decades.