Statistical model-based forecast of minimum and maximum temperatures at Manali

Abstract

Various types of avalanches frequent northwest Himalayan regions during winter months. Winter season over this region is frequented by westward-moving weather systems called western disturbances (WDs). These weather systems yield enormous amount of precipitation. Knowledge of minimum and maximum temperatures during winter months is very useful for assessing human and natural hazards. Models for forecasting minimum and maximum temperatures have been developed for Manali in Himanchal Pradesh, for the months of December, January and February. These models are based on statistical techniques and use surface and upper air meteorological data from 1984 to 1989. The models are also tested with independent data and the results for 1995-96 are presented. The models yield good results with independent cases providing about 88% correct forecast within ′ 2°C of the observed values.