Influence of Relative Sea Level Rise on Coastal Inlets and Tidal Basins

Abstract

The present study focuses on the prediction of the long-term morphology of coastal inlets and tidal basins under the influence of accelerating relative sea level rise. The adopted model approach (ASMITA) considers the geophysical elements of a tidal inlet system at an aggregated scale, schematising the system into maximally three spatial units such as ebb-tidal delta, channel and flat. Analysis of model results shows that under the external forcing of a constant relative rate of sea level rise the system may tend towards a new dynamic equilibrium that depends on the sea level rise rate. However, if the rate of sea level rise exceeds a certain threshold value (stability limit), the system will no longer regain a state of dynamic equilibrium and the tidal basin will drown.