Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Changes of LST and Its Influencing Factors Based on VIC Model in the Arid Region from 1960 to 2017: An Example of the Ebinur Lake Watershed, Xinjiang, China

Abstract

LST (Land surface temperature) is an important indicator for monitoring dynamic changes in the earth’s resources and environment. However, the complexity of obtaining long-term, continuous LST data hinders the development of research on LST responses to meteorological factors or LUCC in areas where data is lacking. The objective of this research was to use the VIC-3L (Variable Infiltration Capacity) based on multi-source remote sensing data to simulate and explore spatio-temporal changes in the LST, to analyze the relationship between the LST and meteorological elements by using cross-wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC), the relationship between the LST and LUCC by using three-phase remote sensing images of LUCC. The following results were obtained. The annual average LST of the study area is increasing at a rate of 0.027 °C per year. The annual average LST level is relatively high in the central and eastern regions. The average temperature has an important influence on LST, which is mainly reflected in the period scale of 1~4a in 1963–1972, 1980–1996, and 2004–2010. The sharp decline in open shrubs may have exacerbated the increase in LST in the study area. This study provides a scientific reference for studying LST in arid areas.