Exploring the Patterns and Drivers of Urban Expansion in the Texas Triangle Megaregion

Abstract

As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, it is vital for planners and policy-makers to understand the patterns of urban expansion and the underlying driving forces. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in the Texas Triangle megaregion and explores the drivers behind the expansion. The study used data from multiple sources, including land cover and imperviousness data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001–2016, transportation data from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), and ancillary socio-demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau. We conducted spatial cluster analysis and mixed-effect regression analysis. The results show that: (1) urban expansion in the Texas Triangle between 2001 and 2016 showed a decreasing trend, and 95% of the newly urbanized land was in metropolitan areas, especially at the periphery of the central cities; (2) urban expansion in non-metropolitan areas displayed a scattered pattern, comparing to the clustered form in metro areas; (3) the expansion process in the Texas Triangle exhibited a pattern of increased development compactness and intensity; and (4) population and economic growth played a definitive role in driving the urban expansion in the Texas Triangle while highway density also mattered. These results suggest a megaregion-wide emerging trend deviating from the sprawling development course known in Texas’ urban growth history. The changing trend can be attributed to the pro-sustainability initiatives taken by several anchor cities and metropolitan planning agencies in the Texas Triangle.