Macroeconomic Risk and Political Stability: Perspectives from Emerging and Developing Economies

Abstract

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic risk on political stability, using data compiled from 38 countries in the sub-region of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), from 1996 to 2018. Macroeconomic risk index employed in this study is constructed using principal component analysis (PCA) from key economic variables. Empirical estimates verifying the relationship in question are conducted using the two-step system generalized method of moments (TS-SGMM) estimation technique. Presented empirical estimates suggest that macroeconomic risk has an adverse impact on political stability, all things being equal. Reported coefficient estimates further suggest that improvement in rule of law among economies in the sub-region significantly moderates the negative impact exerted on the political environment by macroeconomic risk. Coefficient estimates additionally suggest that improvement in governance and institutional variables (corruption control, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law) augment efforts at promoting political stability even in an environment characterized by volatile output growth.