Assessment to China's Recent Emission Pattern Shifts

TLDR

Energy and emission data are crucial for climate change research and mitigation, and accurate energy statistics are essential for evaluating low‑carbon transition performance. The study updates China’s and 30 provinces’ CO₂ emission inventories from 2012 onward using revised energy statistics, providing the most current inventories for 2018 and 2019. Inventories were compiled using a combined scope‑1 and scope‑2 accounting approach covering 17 fossil‑fuel types, cement production across 47 socioeconomic sectors, and purchased electricity and heat. The revised energy statistics increased national CO₂ emissions by 0.3% on average from 2014 to 2017, raised China’s 2005 carbon‑intensity mitigation baseline by 5.1%–10.8%, making pledges harder to meet, yet the 2020 carbon‑intensity target was achieved ahead of schedule in 2018, and 2020 emissions were not offset by COVID‑19 lockdowns, underscoring the need for stronger policies toward net‑zero.

Abstract

Abstract Energy and emission data are crucial to climate change research and mitigation efforts. The accuracy of energy statistics is essential for mitigation strategies and evaluating the performance of low carbon energy transition efforts. This study provides the most up‐to‐date emission inventories for China and its provinces for 2018 and 2019. We also update the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission inventories of China and 30 provinces since 2012 based on the newly revised energy statistics. The inventories are compiled in a combined accounting approach of scope 1 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change territorial emissions from 17 types of fossil fuel combustion and cement production by 47 socioeconomic sectors) and scope 2 (emissions from purchased electricity and heat consumption). The most recent energy revision led to an increase in reported national CO 2 emissions by an average of 0.3% from 2014 to 2017. The results show that data revisions raised China's carbon intensity mitigation baseline (in 2005) by 5.1%–10.8% and thus made it more challenging to fulfill the mitigation pledges. However, the 2020 carbon intensity mitigation target was achieved ahead of schedule in 2018. A preliminary estimate of China's national emissions for 2020 shows that the COVID‐19 pandemic and lockdown was not able to offset China's annual increase in CO 2 emissions. These emissions inventories provide an improved evidence base for China's policies toward net‐zero emissions.