Abstentionist Voting – Between Disengagement and Protestation in Neglected Areas: A Spatial Analysis of The Paris Metropolis

Abstract

This article analyzes electoral behaviors related to voting abstention in the Metropolis of Paris. We highlight the interest of a contextual approach to examine non-voting behaviors. Using socio-economic and demographic data at the level of municipalities, we construct a spatial model to explain the reasons for abstention. Our results support the idea that abstentionism expresses a disengagement behavior as well as a protestation behavior. People disengage from politics because they believe that politicians (no matter which party is in power) will not be able to change their situation. This hypothesis applies to non-voters peripheral to political life. We also show that these people tend to live in socio-economically marginalized areas. The protest attitude is found especially in “left-behind” areas that have experienced a significant decline in the supply of public services and local shops. Bridging the divide in these neglected areas is essential to avoid further marginalization and growing protest.