On the Impact of Rainfall Spatial Variability, Geomorphology, and Climatology on Flash Floods

TLDR

The hydrologic response to rainfall, geomorphology, and climatology remains poorly understood. The study aims to characterize catchment flashiness and understand how rainfall spatial variability, basin physiography, and climatology influence flash flood severity. The authors use a 10‑year high‑resolution rainfall and flood dataset across diverse US basins and apply multi‑dimensional statistical modeling to analyze flashiness dependencies. Spatial rainfall organization affects flashiness as strongly as geomorphology and climatology; lower rainfall is moderated by basin physiography, higher rainfall dominates flashiness, and precipitation dispersion along flow paths reduces flood severity, enabling a sub‑basin flash flood index.

Abstract

Abstract The effects of spatial variability of rainfall, geomorphology, and climatology of precipitation and temperature on the hydrologic response remain poorly understood. This study characterizes the catchment response in terms of a variable called flashiness, that describes the severity of the flood response as the rate of rise of the unit discharge. It overcomes limitations of prior works based on limited case studies or simulations by gathering information on basins of widely varying characteristics and by using a high‐resolution rainfall and flooding event data set spanning 10 years over the Continental United States. The objective is to develop a robust understanding of how rainfall spatial variability influences flash flood severity and to assess its contribution relative to basin physiography and climatology. This study explores the first‐order dependencies as well as the variability in these relationships and investigates the complex interactions using a multi‐dimensional statistical modeling approach. The results confirm that the spatial organization of rainfall influences the basin response on par with geomorphology and climatology. Basin physiography dampens the effect of lower rainfall intensities, while higher rainfall overwhelms other factors and primarily contributes to flashiness. Dispersion of precipitation with respect to the flow path decreases flood severity. An improved understanding of sub‐basin scale rainfall spatial variability aids in developing a robust flash flood severity index to identify and mitigate flash flooding situations as well as identifying basins which could most benefit from distributed hydrologic modeling.