Dynamically learning the parameters of a chaotic system using partial observations

Abstract

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Motivated by recent progress in data assimilation, we develop an algorithm to dynamically learn the parameters of a chaotic system from partial observations. Under reasonable assumptions, we supply a rigorous analytical proof that guarantees the convergence of this algorithm to the true parameter values when the system in question is the classic three-dimensional Lorenz system. Such a result appears to be the first of its kind for dynamical parameter estimation of nonlinear systems. Computationally, we demonstrate the efficacy of this algorithm on the Lorenz system by recovering any proper subset of the three non-dimensional parameters of the system, so long as a corresponding subset of the state is observable. We moreover probe the limitations of the algorithm by identifying dynamical regimes under which certain parameters cannot be effectively inferred having only observed certain state variables. In such cases, modifications to the algorithm are proposed that ultimately result in recovery of the parameter. Lastly, computational evidence is provided that supports the efficacy of the algorithm well beyond the hypotheses specified by the theorem, including in the presence of noisy observations, stochastic forcing, and the case where the observations are discrete and sparse in time.</p>