Earth's Energy Imbalance From the Ocean Perspective (2005–2019)

Abstract

Abstract Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) represents the rate of global energy accumulation in response to radiative forcings and feedbacks. Ocean heat uptake (OHU) poses a vital constraint on EEI and its uncertainty. Considering recent geodetic observations, geophysical corrections, and new estimates of the ocean's expansion efficiency of heat, we translate steric sea‐level change, the difference of total sea‐level and ocean‐mass change, into an OHU of 0.86 [0.62, 1.10, 5%–95%] Wm −2 for the period 2005–2019. Adding components of non‐oceanic heat uptake, we obtain an EEI of 0.94 [0.70, 1.19] Wm −2 , which is at the upper end of previous assessments, but agrees within uncertainty. Interannual geodetic OHU variability exhibits a higher correlation with top‐of‐the‐atmosphere net radiative flux than hydrographic‐only data, but has a three times larger standard deviation. The radiation fluxes and the geodetic approach suggest an increase in heat uptake since 2005, most markedly in recent years.