Non-spatial and spatial econometric analysis of tourism demand in a panel of countries around the world

Abstract

Spatial and non-spatial data econometric models were used on a panel of 43 countries around the world from 2006 to 2016. The number of tourist arrivals was explained using ‘the political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism’ index and the human development indices, that is, the ‘standard of living index’, ‘life expectancy index’ and ‘education index’. Taking spatial information into account improved the forecasting of tourist arrivals in 2017. There was a positive spatial autocorrelation of the ‘endogenous interaction effect’ type. The number of tourist arrivals in neighbouring countries positively impacts those in a given country.