Temporal Analysis of Urban-Suburban PET, mPET and UTCI Indices in Belgrade (Serbia)

TLDR

Bioclimatic analysis is increasingly important for climate interpretation in areas such as spatial planning, tourism, public health, sports events, and bio‑prognosis. The study aims to present the temporal distribution of PET, mPET, and UTCI indices in Belgrade, illustrating their patterns in a mild climate and comparing annual and seasonal differences between the urban center and suburban area. The authors analyzed monthly, seasonal, and annual PET, mPET, and UTCI indices from 43 years of hourly meteorological data recorded at 7 h and 14 h CET for urban and suburban stations. Results show higher biothermal stress in the urban area than in the suburban zone, with indices converging in summer but diverging in winter; the UTCI index exhibits the largest urban–suburban differences, especially at 7 h, matching the Δtmin difference of 1.5 °C, while PET and mPET differences are smaller (0.8 °C and 0.7 °C) and closer to Δtmax (0.6 °C).

Abstract

The analysis of the bioclimatic conditions is becoming increasingly relevant in climate interpretations for human needs, particularly in spatial planning, tourism, public health, sports events, bio-prognosis, etc. In this context, our study presents general temporal bioclimatic conditions in Belgrade, defined based on the PET, mPET and UTCI heat budget indices. Monthly, seasonal and annual indices were analyzed for urban and suburban weather stations based on 43 annual sets of meteorological data obtained by hourly observations at 7 h and 14 h CET. This study aims to present the distribution of PET, mPET and UTCI indices to show the pattern of each index in a mild climate location and to examine annual and seasonal differences of each index in the Belgrade urban center and suburban part of the city. The study results indicate higher biothermal stress in the urban area compared to the suburban zone and that the indices are congruent during the summer. At the same time, during the winter, they are more difficult to compare due to their peculiarities becoming more noticeable. The results obtained of all mean monthly and mean annual values of all three indices clearly indicate the difference that follows the definition of the urban heat island (UHI), particularly those from morning observation and winter season. The UTCI index shows the most significant monthly, seasonal and annual difference between urban and suburban areas for both observations. The annual difference of ΔUTCI7h amounts to 1.5 °C is the same as the annual difference of minimum temperatures (Δtmin). In contrast, the annual differences of ΔPET7h ΔmPET7h are °smaller (0.8 °C and 0.7 °C) and closer to the annual differences of maximum temperatures Δtmax amounted of 0.6 °C.